Polymarket is Predicting the Outcomes of Elections, Sports, and Pop Culture Events

Polymarket is Accurately Predicting the Outcomes of Elections, Sports, and Pop Culture Events

As we explore the state of Web3, one recurring theme is that broad ideas and specific products have struggled to gain widespread appeal. NFTs had a moment of cultural significance in 2021 but that hype faded as the market cooled. And other innovations — like DeFi and Web3 gaming — just haven’t caught on with people outside of the crypto subculture.

But there is one area of Web3 that has already penetrated the public consciousness and has the potential to surge in popularity in the coming years: prediction markets.

Prediction markets are an interesting concept for two reasons. First, they allow participants to speculate — or more bluntly, gamble — on the outcomes of virtually any popular event. For context, Americans wagered nearly $120 billion on legal sports betting sites in 2023. Prediction markets allow people to bet on far more than sports while offering a new and exciting way to back their convictions.

Second, prediction markets have proven to be remarkably effective at forecasting outcomes. By combining the “wisdom of the crowd” and market dynamics, they often predict what is likely to happen before it unfolds. Moving forward, prediction markets are poised to play an increasingly prominent role in media and public discourse.

What are Prediction Markets and How Do They Work?

At their core, prediction markets function like the stock market. But instead of shares representing companies, they represent participants’ beliefs in the likelihood of future events occurring. Buying and selling in these markets is based on expectations of outcomes rather than corporate success or failure.

In prediction markets, share prices range from $0 to $1 with the exact dollar amount reflecting the probability of an event occurring on a scale of 0–100%. For example, in a market predicting an election result, a share priced at $0.70 suggests a 70% chance of that candidate winning. If new developments — such as a favorable poll or scandal arise — the price may fluctuate, indicating a shift in the collective sentiment as shares change hands. Participants profit by buying lower-priced shares and selling them as their prediction becomes more likely and the value increases. They can also hold shares until the event’s final outcome is determined and sell them for the maximum value of $1.

What Makes Prediction Markets Compelling?

Prediction markets use the blockchain to offer numerous benefits (e.g., transparency, security, and global accessibility). However, their impact as we transition into the Web3 era goes far deeper than that.

Prediction markets democratize the exchange of information. They shift power away from legacy media and so-called experts who often make predictions driven by personal motivations or agendas. Instead, prediction markets gather thoughts and opinions from the collective public and produce forecasts and narratives that better align with the consensus opinion and, as a result, tend to be more accurate.

What sets prediction markets apart is that participants must back their beliefs with real financial stakes. By requiring “skin in the game,” these markets disincentivize baseless claims or ideologically driven predictions that dominate much of traditional news and social media conversations. Simply put, prediction markets require well-informed, thoughtful predictions, which results in more accurate and reliable information.

The Resurgence of Web3 Prediction Markets in 2024

Prediction markets became especially popular in 2024 but the concept isn’t new in the Web3 era. Augur and Gnosis (two blockchain-based prediction markets) both launched all the way back in 2015. However, these early efforts struggled with user adoption and liquidity. And because the markets had such little activity, they failed to capture public sentiment and make accurate forecasts.

Today, two prediction markets — Polymarket and Kalshi — are thriving thanks to advancements in blockchain technology and people’s appetite to bet on popular events such as the U.S. presidential election, the 2024 Summer Olympics, and much, much more.

Polymarket

Launched in 2020, Polymarket has become the global leader in prediction markets. Its users can trade on the outcomes of nearly every event in the public consciousness (we’ll look at specific markets they offer later on). The platform has rapidly grown in popularity, bringing in as much as $2.63 billion in monthly trading volume in November 2024. While many Web3 products have struggled to gain traction, Polymarket’s diverse markets and appeal to the general public have helped it attract a large user base.

Kalshi

Kalshi, founded in 2018, is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, meaning it fully complies with U.S. financial regulations and is accessible to U.S. citizens. It offers popular markets focused on politics, the economy, technological innovations, and cultural events but doesn’t provide some of the obscure markets Polymarket does. Still, it too has experienced rapid growth, 5Xing its userbase in 2024.

The 2024 Presidental Election: How Polymarket Rose to Prominence and Nailed the Outcome

Prediction markets broke into the mainstream and dominated public discourse in the months leading up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As November approached, traditional polls — which had been the most trusted source of voter sentiment since the early 1800s — showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a near dead heat. Swing state polls painted a similar picture, particularly in Pennsylvania, where many believed the entire race would be decided. Despite these tight margins, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi offered a wildly different — and ultimately more accurate view of voter sentiment.

Examples of Polymarket markets during the U.S. presidential election

• “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” This market consistently reflected better odds for Trump than traditional polls showed. From early August to early October, “Yes” and “No” shares were priced nearly evenly. However, in the final weeks before the election, the market began favoring Trump, with “Yes” shares rising as high as $0.67 seven days before the election — indicating a 67% perceived chance of his victory.
• “Will Kamala Harris win Pennsylvania?” While traditional polling showed the candidates were deadlocked in Pennsylvania, this market’s “Yes” shares declined steadily from $0.57 in August to $0.39 by late October. Polymarket’s forecast proved accurate, as Harris narrowly lost the state.
• “Will Kamala Harris win Michigan?” Harris consistently polled better in Michigan than in any other swing state. However, Polymarket reflected different expectations, with “Yes” shares falling to $0.41 two weeks before the election. On election night, Trump won Michigan, defying nearly every poll-based forecast.

As results rolled in on the evening of November 5th, Polymarket’s predictions aligned far more closely with the actual outcome than traditional polling did. Polls had shown that key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada were toss-ups, suggesting Trump and Harris would likely split them. However, prediction markets consistently favored Trump in each of these states in the final days before the election — often by significant margins. Ultimately, Trump won every swing state, proving that prediction markets are far more accurate for predicting election outcomes than polls.

In addition to their accuracy, prediction markets were timelier in the lead-up to the election. Markets reacted in real-time to developments, such as debate results, campaign announcements, and breaking news, adjusting rapidly to reflect changes in voter sentiment. Traditional polls, by contrast, often required days to capture these shifts.

Despite being correct in the end, prediction markets faced plenty of criticism leading up to the election. Some argued they were manipulated by “whales” attempting to influence public perception or the election outcome itself. While it’s true that one user bet millions on a Trump victory (and ultimately won $85 million), prediction markets succeeded in their intended objective: aggregating collective wisdom to deliver accurate forecasts.

The 2024 Summer Olympics: How Polymarket Offered a New Form of Sports Betting

Months before garnering attention during the presidential election, Polymarket surged in popularity during the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris. It offered gamblers an innovative way to bet on sports and provided avid fans with real-time insight into probabilities for various events and the overall medal tally.

Traditional sports betting platforms use a wealth of data and advanced algorithms to set odds, with the goal of getting nearly an even amount of wagers on both sides. Not only does this mean the savviest bettors have only a slim edge. It also means wagers are locked in place once made, preventing the bettor from adjusting their position as new information emerges. Prediction markets, on the other hand, allowed participants to continuously trade shares on Olympic outcomes based on real-time market sentiment and changing circumstances.

Examples of Polymarket markets during the 2024 Summer Olympics

• “Will the U.S. win the most gold medals at the Paris Olympics?” This market opened with “Yes” shares priced at $0.82. The early pricing aligned with historical trends, as the U.S. had topped the gold medal count in every Summer Games but one since 1996. However, the market adjusted as China exceeded expectations early on with key wins in swimming and gymnastics. The price fluctuated in the final week and a half of the games — going as low as $0.71 and peaking at $0.95 — as the U.S. and China were neck-and-neck in the medal table. Ultimately, both nations finished tied with 40 gold medals each.
• “Will Simone Biles win the individual all-around gymnastics gold?” This market highlighted the volatility of high-profile individual events. Initially, “Yes” shares were priced at $0.84 based on Biles’s dominance in past gymnastics competitions. However, when she unexpectedly fell during the balance beam routine in the preliminary rounds, “Yes” shares briefly dropped to $0.48. But Biles recovered with an outstanding performance in the final round, and the market rapidly rebounded as it became clear she was on the path to gold.
• “Will Léon Marchand win the most gold medals at the Paris Olympics?” This market opened with “Yes” shares priced at $0.55. While the French swimmer was the frontrunner for the most golds, several other athletes were also strong contenders to leave the games as the most decorated athlete. Marchand delivered standout performances early on, winning all four of his gold medals in the first week. However, “Yes” shares still dropped as low as $0.09 days later, as the market feared other athletes might surpass him. That didn’t happen, though — Marchand finished the games with the most individual gold medals.
• “Will a country win a medal for the first time at the Paris Olympics?”
  This market opened with “Yes” shares priced at $0.50, reflecting even odds that a country would achieve this milestone at the games. The price steadily climbed over the first two weeks until August 4, when both Dominica and Saint Lucia won the first medals in their nations’ histories.
• “Will a new world record be set in swimming at the Paris Olympics?”
  This market began with “Yes” shares priced at $0.40. But when the early swimming events failed to produce record-breaking times, shares dropped to $0.28. That changed on July 31, when Pan Zhanle of China broke the world record in the 100-meter freestyle, setting what would become the first of four swimming world records at the games.

These examples highlight why prediction markets can be more appealing to savvy bettors than traditional sportsbooks. In prediction markets, participants bet against each other, not the house, creating opportunities to capitalize on market inefficiencies. For instance, a bettor confident in Simone Biles’s or Léon Marchand’s Olympic performances could have bought and sold shares as prices bounced around, rather than being locked into the fixed odds offered by a sportsbook.

The Diverse Market Opportunities Available on Polymarket

In addition to elections and sports, prediction markets cater to a broad spectrum of interests. Whether you’re into pop culture, a crypto enthusiast, or curious about the future of science, there is truly something for everyone.

The expansive range not only helps prediction markets attract a large user base but also demonstrates their potential to accurately forecast outcomes on topics where it was previously impossible. Let’s explore some of the markets that can be found on Polymarket.

Politics

• Election outcomes
• Party primary results
• Legislation or policy changes
• Approval ratings for political leaders

Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin price
• When Ethereum will break its all-time high?
• Altcoin exchange listings
• Regulatory developments in crypto

Pop culture and entertainment

• Will TikTok be banned in the U.S.?
• Oscar nominees and winners
• Will Taylor Swift get engaged?
• Movie box office numbers

Sports

• Outcomes of major events (e.g., FIFA World Cup, NBA Finals)
• Individual player performances
• MVP winners

Business and finance

• Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
• Stock market movements
• Company earnings
• Well-known CEOs resigning or getting fired

Science and technology

• Advancements in AI
• Space exploration milestones
• Breakthroughs in medical research

Miscellaneous

• Weather forecasts
• Global economic trends
• Unusual or niche topics driven by user interest

The range of markets gives platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi their widespread appeal. Traditional betting platforms typically focus on sports, major awards shows like the Oscars and Grammys, and sometimes political elections. Prediction markets, on the other hand, feature a wide array of topics and offer multiple markets within each category. This variety attracts not only gamblers but also individuals who are simply curious about the projected outcomes of the events that matter to them.

Polymarket’s Obscure and Controversial Markets

While its accuracy in predicting elections and its variety of markets have helped Polymarket rise to prominence, another factor has contributed to its growth: its willingness to host obscure and even controversial markets. This openness has sparked both praise for creating engaging and unique experiences for its users and criticism for enabling speculation on ethically questionable topics.

Examples of obscure markets

• “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2025?”: Although “Yes” shares consistently trade in the $0.08–$0.16 range, this market — and others focused on aliens and UFOs — offers a unique way to speculate on whether humans are alone in the universe.

• “Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?”: Surprisingly, “Yes” shares often trade above $0.80, reflecting heightened fears of a nuclear catastrophe.
• “What will Trump say during the inauguration speech?”: This market (and similar ones) allows users to trade on what words will be said during prominent speeches. For this example, options included terms like “McDonald’s,” “Doge/Dogecoin,” and “Rig/Rigged.”

For many users, Polymarket’s more obscure markets are part of its allure. They allow participants to engage with unique topics that traditional platforms would never cover, offering a way to apply niche expertise or simply indulge in curiosity.

Examples of controversial markets

• Pandemic-related markets: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Polymarket hosted markets on vaccine rollout timelines, infection rates, and lockdown policies. While these markets provided valuable insight into public sentiment and progress in combating the virus, they also allowed participants to profit from a public health crisis.
• War: Markets predicting geopolitical conflicts — such as whether the Crimean Bridge will be hit — have raised ethical concerns about enabling financial gain from human suffering. But supporters argue that these markets aggregate expert analysis and public sentiment, offering insights into the likelihood of peaceful resolutions.
• Crime: Markets related to notorious figures, such as Diddy and Luigi Mangione, have drawn criticism for trivializing serious crimes. Advocates, on the other hand, argue these markets help gauge legal probabilities.
• Natural disaster predictions: Markets speculating on events like hurricanes making landfall or when wildfires will be contained have faced criticism for enabling profits from catastrophic events. However, proponents contend that these markets aggregate valuable data for risk assessment and response planning.
• Celebrity legal or health issues: Markets on high-profile court cases or the health of public figures have been criticized for crossing ethical boundaries and invading privacy. Polymarket’s defenders claim these markets are no different from the celebrity coverage found in tabloids.

Despite being Web3 products — and decentralization being a core tenet of Web3 — Polymarket and Kalshi impose restrictions on the markets available on their platforms. Users can suggest potential markets, but their teams carefully vet these requests and oversee market implementation.

While both platforms explicitly avoid markets related to violence, terrorism, or illegal activities, Polymarket, in particular, often walks a fine line. The wide variety of market categories they offer — including those deemed controversial or just entertaining — helps them draw attention to their product and attract new users.

The Future of Prediction Markets Goes Beyond Web3

Over the past year, prediction markets have emerged as one of the most exciting developments in Web3. Despite being built on the blockchain, their usability resembles the typical consumer-facing Web2 apps we’re already accustomed to. And unlike many Web3 products — such as those in the DeFi and NFT spaces — which primarily attract Web3 natives and cryptocurrency enthusiasts, prediction markets appeal to the general public.

Sure, they offer gamblers an exciting way to bet on a wide range of topics not typically offered by traditional sportsbooks. But what truly makes them compelling is their potential to shape discussions around the topics that dominate public discourse. Whether predicting the outcome of an election, the winner of a sporting event, or the next viral social media moment, prediction markets could change how our society engages with global events in the coming years.

Polymarket is Predicting the Outcomes of Elections, Sports, and Pop Culture Events was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.