Standard Chartered Picks the ‘Winners’ of a Potential Post-Liberation Day Crypto Surge

As Donald Trump’s tariff storm continues to disrupt markets, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, has made bold predictions about which cryptocurrencies could surge in the near future.

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin and Avalanche (AVAX) are the “winners,” while Ethereum is notably absent from the list. He predicts that AVAX could rise tenfold by the end of 2029, signaling a promising outlook for its blockchain ecosystem.

Why Does Standard Chartered Predict Bitcoin and AVAX Will Shine After Liberation Day?

For Bitcoin, Kendrick highlights two key factors influencing its long-term price: investor accessibility and volatility levels. With the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and potential improvements under the Trump administration, he forecasts Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before Trump leaves office.

“We expect volatility to edge gradually lower once the ETF market matures, increasing Bitcoin’s share of an optimal gold-BTC portfolio. Access plus lower volatility could see Bitcoin reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office,” Kendrick wrote in an email to BeInCrypto.

Other experts share Kendrick’s bullish outlook. They believe Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory after Liberation Day, driven by factors such as a weakening US dollar, increasing M2 money supply, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has projected Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 by the end of this year.

Beyond Bitcoin, Kendrick also identifies Avalanche (AVAX) as a high-growth candidate. He attributes AVAX’s potential to the Etna upgrade, which has significantly reduced the cost of setting up a subnet. Currently, one-quarter of Avalanche subnets are compatible with Etna. This has led to a surge in developers on Avalanche, with many shifting from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.

“As a result, we see AVAX outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of relative price gains in the coming years, reaching a level around $250 by end-2029, more than 10x today’s price,” Kendrick stated in his email to BeInCrypto.

Daily And Monthly Transaction Count – All Indexed L1s on AVAX. Source: avax.network

Data from the AVAX network shows that by 2025, Avalanche is expected to process over 4 million daily transactions and maintain a monthly transaction volume above 100 million, three times the 2024 average.

Ethereum is Struggling

Unlike Bitcoin and AVAX, Ethereum faces a less optimistic outlook. Kendrick has revised his end-2025 ETH price forecast downward to $4,000, a sharp drop from his previous $10,000 estimate. He argues that Layer 2 blockchains, intended to enhance Ethereum’s scalability, have instead harmed its ecosystem.

“Layer 2 blockchains were meant to improve ETH scalability, but we estimate that Base (a key Layer 2) has removed $50 billion from ETH’s market cap. Assuming no change in direction from the Ethereum Foundation, we see ETH-BTC continuing to decline. We now expect ETH-USD at $4,000 by end-2025,” Kendrick wrote to BeInCrypto.

ETH/BTC Price Performance. Source: TradingView.

At the time of writing, ETH/BTC has dropped to a new low of 0.021 BTC, its lowest level since 2021. Analysts highlight that the increasing number of Layer 2 solutions has fragmented Ethereum’s ecosystem, which has contributed to its disappointing price performance over the past year.

Standard Chartered’s forecast paints a divided picture of the post-Liberation Day crypto market. Bitcoin remains dominant due to its increasing accessibility and stabilizing volatility.

Meanwhile, Avalanche emerges as a strong contender in the EVM blockchain space. Ethereum, despite its foundational role, may face significant challenges unless it addresses its current limitations.

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