Polymarket odds suggest US elections will be decided by Pennsylvania

Vice President Kamala Harris overtook former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning in Michigan and Wisconsin on prediction market Polymarket.

If Harris wins the two swing states, the state of Pennsylvania will become the deciding factor in who wins the US presidential election.

The odds took a sharp turn in favor of Harris in two out of six “battleground states” following the publication of a CNN poll conducted by SRSS on Oct. 31, which showed no clear advantage for either candidate.

As a result, Harris’ odds to win Wisconsin and Michigan grew by 5% and 6%, respectively. Additionally, her overall odds of winning the entire election grew from 2.3% to 39.6% but remained significantly below Trump’s 60.3%.

Trump has a 22.2% lead over Harris in overall odds. He also has a 14% lead in Pennsylvania and a large margin in the remaining three swing states: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

Furthermore, a report published by Galaxy Research shows that Trump is leading in 18 different venues, varying from proprietary models to prediction markets. However, the data revealed that most results are tight, with the former president losing its lead on 13 out of 18 venues assessed.

The heated US elections are driving Polymarket to break new records. In October, the prediction market reached 220,682 unique traders, a 174% growth compared to September, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard created by user rchen8.

Moreover, the monthly trading volume reached nearly $2.3 billion, soaring 353% in one month. This is likely tied to election-betting activity, as 85% of the activity on Polymarket last month was related to this topic.

Recently, manipulation rumors on Polymarket began to spread, with researchers from Chaos Labs stating in an Oct. 30 Fortune report that the platform is “rife with fake wash trading.”

However, those claims were not proven, with voices such as Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, arguing that prediction markets’ odds are not manipulated.

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