Companies See Inflation Inching Up to 2.1%, Atlanta Fed Says

Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s March Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey.

That figure is up from the 1.9% recorded in the February BIE Survey but down from the 2.5% recorded in the March 2025 survey.

“Year-ahead unit cost expectations have fallen considerably since hitting a peak of 3.8 percent in April 2022 but remain somewhat elevated relative to their pre-pandemic average of 2.0 percent (from January 2017 through December 2019),” the Atlanta Fed said in the survey.

Firms’ long-run unit cost expectations, which look five to 10 years ahead, increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%, compared to the last time this question was asked, in the December 2025 BIE Survey.

The March survey also found sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” decreased, while year-over-year unit cost growth remained constant at 2.0%, according to the Atlanta Fed’s website.

The Cleveland Fed found in its most recent Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations, which was released Feb. 17, that business leaders’ inflation expectations decreased in the first quarter of 2026.

CEOs and other top executives told the Cleveland Fed that they expect inflation to be 3.1% over the next 12 months. That figure was down from the 3.3% that was recorded in the October 2025 edition of the survey.

“The Cleveland Fed reports these survey data because business leaders’ inflation expectations can influence the prices their firms charge customers, and these prices can, in turn, influence the path of inflation,” the organization said in a Feb. 17 press release.

PYMNTS reported March 11 that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year over year in February and increased 0.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

February’s annual pace matched the reading recorded in January, indicating that broad price pressures remain relatively stable across the economy.

The New York Fed reported March 6 that it found that consumers’ median inflation expectations in February declined by 0.1 percentage point at the one-year horizon, declining to 3.0%, and remained steady at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0%.

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