Bitcoin Is Far From a Bear Market, Analysts Claim | US Morning Crypto Briefing

Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to see how Bitcoin is holding firm above $79,000 despite a sharp equities sell-off. Markets are bracing for the March NFP report and rising recession risks. With Fed rate cuts on the table and ETF inflows staying strong, all eyes are on what’s next for macro and crypto markets.

Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?

The highly anticipated March U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is due later today, and it’s expected to play a key role in shaping market sentiment heading into the weekend.

“With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December,” QCP Capital analysts said.

Traditional markets are increasingly pricing in a recession, with equities retreating sharply—a 7% decline overall, including a 5% drop just yesterday. This broad de-risking environment helps explain the current pause in crypto inflows.

On the derivatives front, QCP adds:

“On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood – uncertain and cautious.”

However, they also note that “with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.”

Bitcoin remains resilient despite market volatility, holding above $79,000 with strong ETF inflows and signs of decoupling from stocks and altcoins. According to Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst, investor, and founder of The Coin Bureau: “Bitcoin is nowhere near a bear market at this stage. The future of many altcoins, however, is more questionable.”

Chart of the Day Changes of a US Recession in 2025. Source: Polymarket.

Chances of a US Recession in 2025 jumped above 50% for the first time, currently at 53%.

Byte-Sized Alpha

– Major ETF issuers are buying Bitcoin, with $220 million in inflows showing strong confidence despite volatility.

– Futures show bullish BTC sentiment, but options traders remain cautious, signaling mixed market outlook.

– Coinbase is launching XRP futures after Illinois lawsuit relief, signaling growing regulatory support for crypto.

– Despite Trump’s tariff-driven crash, analysts see potential for a Bitcoin rebound—though inflation may cap gains.

– The Anti-CBDC bill passed a key House vote, aiming to block Fed-issued digital currencies and protect privacy.

– Today at 11:25 AM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the U.S. economic outlook.

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