What Awaits Bitcoin in 2026? These Old Economic Models May Hold the Answer
Two long-standing economic models, the Benner Cycle and the 18-Year Real Estate Cycle, both point to 2026 as a potential market peak, directly challenging Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year halving cycle.
As the current year nears its end, investor attention is increasingly turning to these historical frameworks. Whether traditional economic cycles or Bitcoin’s halving-driven model will prevail in 2026 remains an open question for now.
Is The Bitcoin 4-year Cycle Over?The Bitcoin 4-year cycle is a historical pattern tied to Bitcoin’s halving. It occurs approximately every four years and reduces the mining block rewards by half.
Typically, the cycle moves from accumulation to an uptrend, then into an euphoric peak in the year after the halving, and finally into a bear market. Therefore, if this pattern continues, 2026 may mark the start of a new bearish phase for Bitcoin.
That said, a growing number of analysts believe that this pattern may no longer hold in today’s market. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s price behavior is driven more by shifts in global liquidity than by halving events.
“4 year cycle is dead. The market has changed. Matured,” Bitwise CEO, Hunter Horsley, wrote.The 4-year cycle is a myth.
It was simply beta to the business cycle.
The only thing that matters is global M2 and liquidity… and that cycle hasn't even kicked off yet.
Adjust your expectations accordingly. pic.twitter.com/xwpZ6Bbh9D