Toncoin Below $3: Trap for Retail or Rare DCA Opportunity?

Toncoin (TON) has faced a sharp correction in recent weeks, slipping below the $3 mark amid concerns over upcoming token unlocks.

While selling pressure dominates short-term sentiment, a growing number of institutional moves suggest the current decline could present a chance to begin a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy.

TON Token Unlocks Fuel Selling Pressure

As of this writing, TON was trading for $2.66, after dropping by 1.3% in the last 24 hours and over 5% in the last week.

Toncoin (TON) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

The immediate headwind for the Toncoin price comes from the Believers Fund, which will begin releasing approximately 37 million TON each month starting in November 2025.

Although initial fears pointed to a one-time release of 635 million tokens, clarification from TON ecosystem figures has eased the worst-case scenario.

Still, regular monthly unlocks will introduce significant new supply. Analysts see the overhang as a “time bomb” for short-term pricing. This raises concerns of the TON price dipping toward $2.61 before stabilizing.

$TON October Big month ahead

▪️ Believers Fund unlock: ~37M TON monthly (not 635M at once).
▪️ AlphaTon Capital already bought $30M TON, aiming for $100M.
▪️ Telegram’s 1B+ users fuel NFT sticker mania (Pudgy Penguins, DOGS OG).
Risk: extra supply = pressure (may dip near… pic.twitter.com/KhqmDLXSFf

— BeLaunch (@BeLaunch_) September 29, 2025

Social commerce activity, NFT sticker demand within Telegram, and other network use cases are seen as potential offsetting forces.

Institutional Confidence Anchors the Market

Despite looming unlocks, institutional players are signaling conviction in TON’s long-term value. TON Strategy Company (Nasdaq: TONX), a listed digital asset treasury (DAT) firm, has staked 82% of its Toncoin reserves.

BREAKING: TON Strategy (NASDAQ: $TONX) has staked 82% of $TON that they hold in their treasury