Token Unlocks Loom Over Top Cryptos: What Investors Need to Know for the Next 6 Months

In the macroeconomic milieu of uncertainty that the cryptocurrency market finds itself in, even the best-laid plans of traders and long-term investors can go awry.

Token unlock schedules that were previously in the shadows have been brought into the light; we are now all too aware of the impending unlocks of the very tokens with which we trade and invest. The issue is not really whether the unlocks will happen (they almost certainly will) or even when (most seem set to unlock sometime between now and the end of 2025). The real talk has been about the likely negative impacts the scheduled unlocks could have on the prices of the unlocked and locking tokens.

Tokenomist has given a thorough investigation of the biggest tokens by market cap, shining a light on those that have important unlocks coming up. The study breaks up supply growth into two parts: the immediate (1 month) and the not-so-immediate (6 months), and it tells us which assets are in the most danger of getting diluted.

Within the next 30 days, a number of well-known tokens are poised to broaden their circulating supply very much. At the front of this is WBT (WhiteBIT Token), with a coming unlock that is worth $1.15 billion and is going to raise its circulating supply by 27.4%. By a large margin, this makes WBT the token most at risk for dilution among familiar tokens that are analyzed in this report.

Next up is TRUMP, scheduled for a $193.2 million open, which is 7.4% of its present supply. While this is less than WBT in dollar terms, it is an expansion that is worthy of note, especially given the low float of the token.

Celestia (TIA) also figures prominently, with a release of $81.7 million scheduled for this quarter, expanding its supply by 4.8%. Other tokens that have substantial short-term unlocks coming up include:

– ENA: $66.2 million (3.8%)

– SUI: $312.7 million (2.7%)

– APT: $61.3 million (1.8%)

– ARB: $35.2 million (2.2%)

With HYPE, ONDO, and JUP showing no expected near-term unlocks, they enjoy a temporary advantage in terms of stable emissions.

In six months, it will be an even bigger landscape for releases. At the top is TRUMP again, with a scheduled release of tokens worth $2.11 billion. That is an 80.8% increase over the current circulating supply of TRUMP tokens. Such a sharp increase will likely pour more tokens into the circulating supply at a time when the total market value of all released tokens is already in decline.

With $500 million in upcoming unlocks—equal to 29.5% of its circulating supply—TIA follows next. Meanwhile, WBT maintains its previously mentioned $1.15 billion unlock, again representing a 27.4% increase. This large percentage increase suggests that both tokens are operating with a relatively low float and will see material increases in supply in the months to come.

ENA is not far behind: A 23.0% unlock awaits it in six months’ time—$397 million, to be precise. Meanwhile, SUI, APT, and ARB are all set to increase their current supply by around 11% to 13%. Still, HYPE, ONDO, and JUP once again show no unlocks over the half-year horizon, suggesting greater near-term supply stability.

A key aspect of assessing unlocks is how they compare to a token’s existing market cap. TRUMP stands out in this regard. Its $2.11 billion in unlocks is about 81% of its existing market cap of $2.6 billion. Such a high figure raises the obvious concern of dilution. The $2.11 billion figure dwarfs the not even half-a-billion-sized buyback that also exists. And unless demand grows in a meaningful way, such a ratio almost has to weigh on price.

Other significant exposures comprise WBT ($1.15 billion unlock against a $4.18 billion market cap = 27.5%) and TIA ($500 million unlock against a $1.69 billion market cap = 29.5%). These ratios not only highlight the potential dilution but also the potential market softness that exists to new supply.

The Market Cap to Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) ratio is another handy metric for gauging an asset’s emissions risk. A low ratio frequently indicates that a good chunk of the supply is yet to be set loose and that future unlocks could substantially boost not just the asset’s circulating supply, but also its emissions.

Presently, TRUMP stands out with a notably low Mcap/FDV ratio of just 0.20. That means, out of its total token supply, only a small fraction is currently in circulation. AOD (with a similar deficit of just 0.32) and HYPE (also at 0.33) are in slightly better float positions, but all these tokens dynamic emitters that are likely to dump more tokens into circulation. By contrast, APT and TIA show much healthier floats — between 60%-75% of their total supply is in circulation.

In the next few months, traders and investors should scrutinize unlock schedules. Why? Because we’re talking about billions of tokens readied for release—and releasing them would likely have a dramatic impact on the market. And supply and demand is, as ever, the fundamental story when it comes to price.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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