Three Key Scenarios for Bitcoin Price in 2025 – Could BTC Hit $175,000?
Bitcoin may face three potential trend scenarios in the future, with the most optimistic one forecasting a surge to $150,000 to $175,000 within the next 12 months.
This prediction is supported by factors such as a strong influx of institutional capital and positive investor sentiment following the Trump administration’s plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve.
Positive Forecasts from Experts and Market SignalsBitcoin (BTC) is showing promising prospects as numerous positive signals from the market and expert predictions emerge in early May 2025. In an analysis by AxelAdlerJr, as of today, on-chain momentum is in the “starting” phase of a bull run.
Bitcoin Composite Index. Source: AxelAdlerJr
The Bitcoin Composite Index currently stands at ≈ 0.8 (80%). Based on this indicator, AxelAdlerJr outlined three possible scenarios.
In the most optimistic scenario, BTC’s price could reach $150,000 to $175,000, following the cyclical logic of 2017 and 2021. This would occur if the Bitcoin Composite Index surpasses 1.0 and remains above that level.
If the ratio stays within the 0.8–1.0 range, the market would likely consolidate in a broad corridor between $90,000 and $110,000, indicating that participants are maintaining positions without increasing exposure.
Alternatively, if the ratio drops to 0.75 or below, short-term holders may start taking profits, potentially leading to a price correction to $70,000–$85,000. However, AxelAdlerJr notes that this scenario is less likely than the other two.
The return of YoY True MVRV to positive territory means that the average purchase price of all coins acquired over the past year is now below the current market price. The pressure from panic sellers is decreasing – many are now in profit and don't need to lock in losses. Holder… pic.twitter.com/6AgvVVTn9h
— Axel