Tariff Could Bring ‘Notable Markdowns’ to Growth Forecasts Worldwide
A wave of new economic surveys and projections this week will illustrate the impact of America’s tariff campaign.
As Bloomberg News reports, these include a forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — expected Tuesday (April 22) — which will lower the group’s outlook for economic growth.
“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. We will caution that protracted high uncertainty raises the risk of financial-market stress.”
The week will bring new purchasing manager indexes and business surveys from several countries, as well as revised data from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey and new insights from the Fed’s Beige Book on regional economic conditions.
The report said this combined picture could help finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Washington this week assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape global trade via tariffs, some of which are now on hold.
Georgieva told Bloomberg she hopes this week, which also features a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs, might bring down the temperature in global trade relations.
“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she said. The meetings in D.C. “provide a vital forum for dialogue at a vital time.”
In other tariff-related news, PYMNTS recently explored the levies’ impact on small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in a conversation with Priority CEO Tom Priore.
“From the SMB standpoint, the exposure to tariffs at the supply chain level may actually be pretty small … but the main concern and the damage to small business lies with consumer uncertainty,” he told PYMNTS CEO Karen Webster.
Research by PYMNTS Intelligence found that close to 80% of consumers are pulling back on at least some purchases because of this uncertainty, as they look to build up their savings or wait to see what comes next.
“Where the rubber’s going to meet the road is what the consumer decisions are,” Priore said, adding, “If consumer spending does slow, it’s going to affect all businesses.”
Against that backdrop, SMBs are aiming to be predictive and proactive about managing their operations, he said, trying to figure out how they can best manage cash flow and optimize working at a time when many businesses depend on the personal credit cards of their owners.
“What we’re seeing, not just on the small business front but also with larger companies, is the utilization of credit products to extend working capital,” Priore said.
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