Retail Thinks HYPE Is Breaking Down, But Whales Might Be Setting A Trap

The HYPE token has been trading inside a rising wedge since late June 2025, a formation often seen before breakdowns. But this time, something’s off.

Despite the weak price action and rising retail shorts, smart money signals are quietly flipping bullish under the hood.

HYPE Whales Keep Buying Every Dip

Beginning in mid-June, several large wallets, including 0xDc50 and 0x89AB, deposited millions of USDC onto Hyperliquid. These inflows coincided with price dips, both of which bounced sharply after HYPE tokens were purchased. Lookonchain reports confirm that 0xDc50 alone bought over 500,000 HYPE around $33–$34, spending over $17 million in under two days.

A newly created wallet "0xDc50" deposited 17.5M $USDC to Hyperliquid and bought 517,602 $HYPE($18.31M now) at an average price of $33.8 over the past 2 days.https://t.co/r4miVTUtwH pic.twitter.com/Qf070BvuZp

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 23, 2025

In each case, red candles marked by local lows (one local high when a whale took profit) on the TradingView chart aligned with whale accumulation zones. It’s not a coincidence.

These reversals are the footprints of deep pockets repositioning before retail shorts can react.

HYPE price chart: TradingView Funding Flips Negative, But It’s Not Working

Since July 1, funding rates for HYPE across major perps have flipped negative. This means short-sellers are paying to hold their positions.

In theory, this should push the HYPE price lower, but the opposite happened. 

Funding rates: Coinglass

One address, 0x4F12, exited at $42 after staking and selling 126,772 tokens, making $2.8 million. But even as exits happen, inflows from new wallets like 0xE2f8 and 0xCaC1 are replacing them.

Whale 0xE2f8 deposited 10M $USDC into Hyperliquid in the past 30 minutes to buy $HYPE spot and go long on $HYPE.https://t.co/utmPl5TPXB pic.twitter.com/BRN7hzAB97

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 6, 2025

Despite the negative funding rates, Hyperliquid’s long/short ratio shows that longs still outnumber shorts 64:36, but the ratio has dropped from over 2.1 to below 2.0 in 48 hours. This indicates some long exit, but not enough to tilt the bias yet.

Long-short ratio: Coinglass Smart Money Flow Still Net Positive

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a TradingView indicator that tracks volume-weighted inflows versus outflows, has remained above the zero line for some time now. That signals buying strength. CMF doesn’t just follow price; it tracks capital flow. A positive CMF during sideways consolidation indicates that Smart Money is still accumulating while the price remains stable.

CMF in the positive zone: TradingView

The current structure would be invalidated only if CMF breaks down below zero alongside the price breaking below $37.5. Until then, dips are being bought hard.

CMF helps highlight where real money is flowing. Unlike RSI or MACD, which measure momentum, CMF indicates whether traders are moving capital into or out of the token. And right now, it still looks positive.

HYPE’s Rising Wedge Still Intact

HYPE continues to trade within a rising wedge in the hourly timeframe, with higher lows since June 27 and resistance forming near $41. If the price breaks above the wedge and holds above $42 with volume, shorts could face a violent squeeze.

HYPE Price Performance: TradingView

However, if the price falls below $38.50, $37.50, the more recent support lines, a move towards $31.50 can become possible. Yet, $36.86 remains a key support line as it aligns with the smart buying level. Hitting those key support zones would flip the structure, and whales may start rotating out. For now, the wedge remains intact, and whales are still buying, not selling.

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