Polymarket still bets on Minecraft Movie beating Superman and Fantastic Four as biggest opening weekend

Polymarket users might be ready to ditch their bets for the biggest opening weekend for movies in 2025. The current selection of movies seems to be mildly fluctuating, with a good chance that the current top bet, A Minecraft Movie, could possibly sink once July hits.

Currently, the bet holds a massive $11.7 million volume on Polymarket, with prediction market participants holding onto their wagers across multiple movies. At the top is Minecraft, with a whopping 47% of the share as of writing. The movie hit like a sledgehammer when it came out, with viral videos of the audience going nuts for different Jack Black phrases born out of meme culture over on TikTok. From prodding fun at the movie to bringing actual live chickens inside the cinema for the “Chicken Jockey” scene, it could be a hard one to beat.

July is a superhero-heavy month, with both Superman and Fantastic Four: First Steps releasing on July 11 and 24, respectively. A Minecraft Movie has been the biggest launch so far this year, with a massive $162,753,003 during the opening weekend. However, the two superhero movies are estimated to bring in something close to that and could easily topple it.

It’s a win-win for Warner according to Polymarket

Superman’s weekend opening predictions have slumped according to recent reports, but not by much. Early forecasts put it at $125 million to $145 million, but some other forecasts have said a maximum of $185 million. Without that naturally occurring viral takeover of TikTok like Minecraft did, it could still be a massive weekend for Warner’s latest attempt at mirroring the Marvel Universe.

We wouldn’t cry for Warner Bros. either way, as they did the Minecraft movie too.

Polymarket currently has Superman in third place with a 15% chance. Above it is the third Avatar movie, Fire and Ash at 17%. The second Avatar movie, Way of Water, pulled in $134 million, but its muted response from the public might downplay this in the US.

Fantastic Four could pull it out the bag yet

July’s other superhero movie, a third attempt at making the Fantastic Four work on screen, led by Pedro Pascal as Reed Richards, Mr Fantastic. This is yet another Marvel flick trying to shed itself of the malaise generated since the franchise flooded entertainment with mediocre TV shows and movies.

Poised to pull in between $125 million $135 million, or $155 million, depending on which reports you read, The Fantastic Four could be another massive earner for Disney, but labeled as a bit of a dud like Thunderbolts* (which made $74.3 million opening).

The Fantastic Four currently ranks towards the bottom, with only 2% of the $11.7 million volume. As the wager doesn’t actually close until December 31, 2025, gamblers might lose cash if they don’t manage to sell their bets in time on the prediction market.

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