Forgd CEO Explains How Trade War Chaos Affect Crypto Airdrops and TGEs

Crypto and global markets are reeling from the escalating trade war sparked by President Trump’s latest tariffs. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have plummeted this week, sending Web3 projects into a tailspin.

BeInCrypto contacted Shane Molidor, founder of Forgd, which has shepherded over 1,000 token launches. The former Gemini business development associate explains how fledgling ventures that once relied on a 2025 bull market adjust strategies and survival tactics.

Market Turmoil Forces Web3 Projects to Rethink Token Launches

Molidor unpacked how Web3 teams are rethinking everything from airdrops to tokenomics. Citing retail exhaustion that has collided with this week’s crypto market panic, he says demand for new tokens is dimming.

“Launching in these conditions risks a flop, and that’s a death knell for projects needing momentum,” he started.

Most projects try to time their token generation events (TGEs) with a bull market to ride speculative retail demand. When the macro market tanks, like it has this week, they hesitate to list.

Poor price performance scares off future investors. Token launches, which once drew excitement, are now becoming high-risk gambles. The market conditions are forcing many to delay or reconsider their approaches.

“The pressure is building, and with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum taking a hit, teams are wary of entering the market with new tokens,” Molidor adds.

Airdrops Under Fire: From Hype Machine to Risky Proposition

Crypto airdrops, once a go-to for user acquisition and buzz, are also under fire. Molidor notes that founders have become more cautious.

“Big airdrops often trigger sell pressure that kills TGE buzz,” he says.

Exceptions like Solana-based Jito (JTO) airdrop aligned well with market timing and community engagement, passing as outlier successes. Amidst prevailing bearish sentiment, however, the trend is shifting toward more targeted reward mechanisms that focus on filtering out speculative traders.

“Founders are moving toward methods like vesting periods, Sybil resistance, and eligibility filters to route tokens to crypto-native users rather than to people just looking to cash out immediately,” Molidor adds.

This suggests utility is crucial now, with the Forgd executive articulating that airdrops without a clear narrative and use case will fall flat.

Tokenomics: The Return of Low Float, High FDV Models

Tokenomics is also undergoing a makeover. Molidor notes that low float, high fully diluted valuation (FDV) strategies are back in fashion as projects attempt to curb sell-offs from airdrop dumpers. These models limit the circulating supply at launch, giving the impression of high value.

“It’s an illusion of strength. Early price pops distort market caps, but thin liquidity and front-loaded unlocks alienate both retail and institutional investors,” Molidor cautions.

This approach can appear predatory, enticing retail investors only to leave them with little liquidity and big insider exits.

However, Molidor notes that the market is wise to these games now. Projects must ensure that tokenomics are well-designed to foster long-term growth and avoid manipulation. Instead of chasing short-term hype, Molidor urges founders to focus on strategies that promote real user adoption.

“The key is balance. You want tokenomics that encourage long-term engagement while still protecting against early sell pressure,” he explained.

The Funding Drought: Crowd Funding and Angel Investors Step In

Molidor also demonstrated cognizance that the venture capital playing field has shifted dramatically. With funding tightening over the last 12 months, many Web3 projects are turning to alternative sources of capital.

Crowdfunding platforms like Legion and Echo are gaining traction among perceptive retail investors. They offer smaller, more flexible funding rounds. However, these rounds often cannot replace the scale of traditional venture capital.

“Crowdfunding is definitely on the rise, especially for earlier-stage projects. However, while crowd-funding platforms are becoming a vital tool, they are not a one-stop shop. Projects will still need larger rounds of VC funding to scale and deliver on their long-term visions,” he noted.

In response, venture capitalists are doubling down on early-stage equity and token stakes to offset dilution from later crowdfunding efforts.

According to Molidor, this strategy is creating an interesting dynamic in the funding arena, with VCs pushing for larger ownership stakes earlier in the process.

Compared to previous bear markets, he says this adjustment is a return to fundamentals but with more sophistication. In past bear markets, projects would typically delay their launches or aggressively cut costs. However, Molidor says that founders are taking a more nuanced approach.

“Delays and cost-cutting are still part of the playbook, but what’s different now is the level of sophistication in how teams manage their tokenomics, airdrops, and launch strategies. The cost of a mispriced launch is brutal reputationally and economically. Retail is fatigued, VCs are more hands-on, and communities are quicker to call out misaligned interests,” he explained.

Based on these, Molidor and his team at Forgd advise projects to take a surgical approach. The most successful projects take the time to understand their community, create value, and resist the urge to chase short-term hype.

“Narrative-driven airdrops, intentional community sales, and valuations built to last,” he advises.

A Market Test of Web3’s Resilience

Molidor says that the next six months will test Web3’s resilience. The sharpest projects will weather the storm as Trump’s tariffs upend the early-2025 bull market dreams.

“Token design is like capital structure now. It’s deliberate, contextual, and enduring—that’s what wins,” Molidor concludes.

For founders, it is adapt or die. For investors and users, it is a front-row seat to crypto’s latest crucible. Only the most thoughtful and strategic projects will succeed in this challenging market environment.

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