FOMC Meeting Today: Will Powell’s Speech Trigger a Crypto Rally or Sell-Off?

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Bitcoin dropped below $83,000 early Wednesday, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP saw slight ups and downs. The Market Fear & Greed Index hit 23, showing traders are feeling cautious as the market stays uncertain.

The current situation is keeping the crypto market on edge as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting nears its conclusion today. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, as any shift in policy could send ripples through the market. While most analysts expect rates to remain between 4.25% and 4.5%, the Fed’s outlook for future cuts is the real wildcard.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed caution, pointing to inflation and economic uncertainty as reasons to hold rates steady. Current expectations suggest that meaningful rate cuts might not come until mid-2025. However, Powell’s post-meeting statements could shape investor sentiment. If he hints at easing sooner than expected, risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins could see a surge. On the other hand, a continued hawkish stance may add selling pressure to the market.

However, as per QCP Capital’s latest report, they don’t expect a surprise rate cut from the Fed but warn that any dovish hint from Powell could drive markets higher. Investors are shifting money away from Bitcoin and NASDAQ stocks and into European and Chinese markets, signaling a possible change in capital flows. The market’s reaction after the FOMC meeting could determine the next big move for risk assets.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $85K, with traders preparing for potential turbulence. Higher interest rates generally favor traditional investments like bonds and savings accounts, pulling capital away from speculative assets such as crypto. If the Fed sticks to its high-rate policy, liquidity may tighten further, which could lead to a market downturn.

Despite concerns, a shift in Fed policy could spark optimism. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has declined from 3.1% to 2.8%, indicating some progress on inflation. If Powell acknowledges this trend and suggests that rate cuts are coming soon, risk appetite could increase, benefiting altcoins in particular.

The next 24 hours are crucial. If the Fed doubles down on its hawkish stance, crypto markets may face further losses. However, if there’s a signal of rate cuts in the near future, the market could rally. Investors are watching Powell’s every word, as his tone will dictate the next big move in crypto.