Fed Meeting Outcome Today: FOMC Expectations and Forecast

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The U.S. economy stands at a critical juncture as investors await the Federal Reserve’s December 10 FOMC meeting, with markets widely expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut. 

Recent data, including the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showing inflation at 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest pace since spring 2024, has reinforced expectations of policy easing despite inflation remaining above target.

FOMC Rate Cut Expectations

According to UBS strategist Jonathan Pink, there appears to be broad agreement within the committee to deliver a rate cut, though significant policy revisions are unlikely.

Jonathan Pink, “A 25 basis point cut has broad support, but the Fed is unlikely to change the DOT plot or median policy assumptions. The real focus will be Powell’s communication on risks and how he frames the outlook for future cuts.”

While a quarter-rate cut is largely priced in, investors will closely watch for signals on 2026 policy direction. Pink expects two rate cuts next year but emphasized that the next Fed chair could shape monetary policy debates. 

He also flagged balance-sheet activity as a growing focus, anticipating Treasury bill purchases of $40–60 billion per month to manage liquidity and stabilize repo markets.

FED Rate Cuts May Not Immediately Boost Markets

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