Bitcoin moves with tech stocks as US GDP projected to fall 2.8% amid trade war
US tariff policies for 2025, which include 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, and 100% levies on automotive imports, are weighing on economic forecasts.
Analysts, including the London School of Economics, estimate that these measures could reduce GDP by 0.64% in the near term and contract long-run GDP by 0.2%. Reduced consumption and investment have pushed the Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -2.8%, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow.
Notably, GDPNow’s analysis highlighted “Government Exports” as the largest contributor to the decline at –3.57 percentage points, which is the largest single drag. This significant negative impact, along with smaller negative contributions from production and nonresidential structures, wasn’t fully offset by the positive factors, including private inventories, residential investment, and IP, leading to the net –2.8% forecast.
GDPNow estimates for Q1 2025 (Source: Atlanta Fed)
Tran Hung, CEO of Uquid, asked the question, “How will this play out?” while reviewing the GDPNow data,
“Did Trump’s rhetoric push the US 