Bitcoin and US Stock Markets Hinge on Trump-China Tariff Deal Hopes
Crypto and TradFi markets had a strong opening today, as Bitcoin briefly jumped 5% due to optimism about a tariff deal. China and institutional investors in the US wish to avoid a trade war if possible.
Despite these encouraging signs, no deal has actually been reached, and Bitcoin also suffered subsequent losses. The whole market is in a state of flux until the situation becomes more clear.
How Will Bitcoin Perform Under Tariffs?The crypto markets are full of fear right now, and it’s difficult to determine a safe bet moving forward. Since the market suffered huge liquidations yesterday, it opened with cautious optimism today.
This trend was particularly influenced by Bitcoin, which briefly jumped around 5% due to hopes about a potential deal on Trump’s tariffs.
Bitcoin Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated wildly due to the tariffs as speculation about a sell-off increases. However, the whole market is in a chaotic state right now.
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,285 points, or 3.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both jumped 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Nonetheless, hundreds of stocks have fallen 20% or more.
Stock Market Reacts to Tariffs. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has a few advantages that can protect it from tariff volatility. For example, a recent report from Binance Research claims that the least risky cryptoassets are the most insulated from drops.
This includes RWAs and centralized exchanges, but Bitcoin is a close third.
Furthermore, the markets are very optimistic about a deal to avoid the tariffs. Yesterday, rumors of a pause triggered a trillion-dollar rally, highlighting traders’ desperation for good news.
Despite the retaliatory tariffs, China is similarly eager to avoid a full-blown trade war with the US. Trump claimed that he is making progress with China and South Korea, fueling optimism.
I just had a great call with the Acting President of South Korea. We talked about their tremendous and unsustainable Surplus, Tariffs, Shipbuilding, large scale purchase of U.S. LNG, their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline, and payment for the big time Military Protection we…
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) April 8, 2025Nonetheless, it’s important not to overstate Bitcoin’s chances of success under tariffs. Despite the hopes on both sides of the Pacific, China confirmed that it’s prepared to fight a trade war if Trump forces its hand.
This might explain Bitcoin’s price drops despite its strong performance since yesterday. Ultimately, all we can do is wait and hope.
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