Bitcoin’s Price Surge Met With Muted Profit-Taking, Indicating Long-Term Confidence

Bitcoin hit an all-time price high on May 21, 2025, and this particular price milestone even surprised some traders. Despite the price going to levels not seen before on any exchange, most traders looked on with trepidation and didn’t seem very celebratory at all.

Profit taking at this new high was abysmally low compared to what we saw when Bitcoin broke through the $30,000 price level in early 2024, and it was a lot lower than what happened when Bitcoin broke the $50,000 price level later that same year. So the big price high on May 21 came, but the celebratory atmosphere just ain’t there.

As per on-chain data, realized profits when Bitcoin first broke into six-figure territory in December 2024 hit around $2.10 billion. Meanwhile, the profit-taking that accompanied this week’s all-time high totaled around $1.00 billion—less than half of what we saw in December 2024.

This striking discrepancy is considering the price point that was higher this time. Market participants, especially those clutching vintage coins, appear to be not selling into this strength. Historically, we’ve seen participants rush to secure gains in the wake of such massive price surges. Yet, this time, silence is golden; profit-taking whispers no louder than a church mouse.

The evolution of behavior is made even clearer when examining the age distribution of active coins. In May 2025, coins under one month old accounted for 76.9% of the volume, sharply up from just 44.6% in December 2024. Coins held for over six months dropped to just 13.4% of the volume, down from 24.7% during the December rally. If we sort this data into a list, with the first entry being the coins held less than one month and the last being coins held for over six months, it becomes very readable.

This sharp contrast makes clear a main behavior change: short-term traders and new market entrants are behind current price moves. Longer-term holders have so far mostly refrained from moving their assets. In crypto, spending or moving older coins tends to signal profit-taking or more generalized market jitters. The lack of that kind of activity now signals something even more bullish: deeper confidence among long-term investors.

Further adding to the bullish sentiment is the ongoing strength in Bitcoin-targeted spot ETFs. On May 21, the investment vehicles observed a total net inflow of $609 million. This marked the seventh consecutive day of positive net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and it reflects a pretty remarkable turnaround in sentiment toward this vehicle. This is something that not long ago was perceived to have darn near zero chance of working.

These inflows are important not just because of their size but also because of what they signify. They’re institutional capital that’s moving into the asset at a steady clip, even though prices are pretty high. In conjunction with a couple of other things—first, that profit-taking seems to be way down; and second, that there’s an apparent determination among both retail and institutional holders to simply hold the asset—that adds up to a picture of a market that’s confidently underpinned by both retail and institutional holders.

The impressive current price rally seems to be characterized by something rare in recent memory—an apparent calm among long-term Bitcoin holders. Instead of a rush to take profits and a return to the underground, seasoned Bitcoin investors seem to be staying the course and demonstrating confidence in a future that includes Bitcoin. Furthermore, the great vastness of this foundation seems to be ensuring that the visible activity of short-term traders, which appears to be the current main driver of market momentum, isn’t causing that momentum to become a destabilizing force. And what activity it is!

In brief:

• The realized profits are far lower than they were at the last peak.
• Long-term holders are choosing to do nothing and let their profits ride.
• Short-term traders are profit-taking and, therefore, actively shaping our current price movements.
• There is a serious amount of institutional interest out there, most notably evidenced by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

This combination suggests that we might have a market that still has room to grow. Instead of a repeat of the last bull run, which was characterized by overwhelming euphoria and then a lot of frantic profit-taking, this one seems to have a base that is a lot quieter and a lot more calculated.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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