Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Officially Dead, Declares Arthur Hayes

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto’s most influential thinkers, has a message for the market: the old Bitcoin cycle is gone forever.

Here are some of the most significant insights from his latest blog post titled “Long Live the King”.

For years, traders have believed that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable four-year rhythm – a rise after every halving, followed by a crash. Hayes says that belief is outdated.

“There have been three cycles where the all-time high occurred every four years,” he wrote. “Traders apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s past bull runs weren’t driven by halvings at all. They were powered by one thing, that is liquidity. In other words, Bitcoin moved with the flow of global money, not with its own supply schedule.

Also Read: Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead? Analysts Warn of Major Shift 

Hayes breaks Bitcoin’s history into four distinct cycles:

• Genesis Cycle (2009–2013): Born out of the 2008 crisis, fueled by U.S. money printing and China’s credit boom.
• ICO Cycle (2013–2017): Driven by China’s liquidity surge and Ethereum’s arrival.
• COVID Cycle (2017–2021): Fed stimulus and “helicopter money” under Trump sent all assets soaring.
• New World Order (2021–Present): A shift from predictable cycles to policy-driven markets.

Every major rally, he notes, began when money was cheap and plentiful and every crash came when credit tightened.

Today’s market, Hayes says, runs on politics more than halving charts. The U.S. and China, the world’s largest economies, are again turning to easy money.

In the U.S., President Trump wants to “run the economy hot” and is pushing for lower interest rates. Treasury policies have already added trillions in liquidity. Meanwhile, China is fighting deflation and preparing to ease credit conditions.

“Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful,” Hayes wrote. “Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”

Has the old Bitcoin cycle really ended? Some of the proof is undeniable. The next phase will depend on global liquidity, not halvings.

Bitcoin, Hayes believes, is still the strongest form of money. Only now, its path forward will be shaped by central banks, not block rewards.

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