Bets on Trump’s tariffs on Canada intensify

The prospect of an end to the trade war between the United States and Canada by May was estimated at over 60%, according to a Polymarket contract on the situation. 

Despite the rise in recent days, there has been a subsequent drop in bets backing a conclusion to the saga within weeks.

Progress has been mooted after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed that President Donald Trump is open to negotiation. 

The backdrop is that Trump has granted a one-month exemption to stringent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for American auto firms, due to concerns of a significant impact on manufacturing. 

His decision was influenced following a meeting with executives from the “Big 3” of car makers, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. 

The imposition of 25% tariffs by the President was said to be related to the perception that Canada and Mexico were not doing enough to stop the flow of the potent synthetic drug fentanyl, and illegal immigration into the States.