94% of Kalshi bets expect pardon for founder of first darknet market

The overwhelming majority of prediction market Kalshi users expect Ross Ulbricht — the founder of the world’s first darknet market Silk Road — to be pardoned by Trump within the first 100 days in office.

Kalshi’s Trump pardons market indicates that 94% of the capital is on the United States President pardoning Ulbricht. The market sees a daily trading volume of over $2 million and an open interest of nearly one million.

This follows Trump enduring a frosty reception at the Libertarian National Convention in May 2024, only to be greeted by cheers when he promised to pardon the Silk Road founder. He said at the time:

“And if you vote for me, on Day One, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht.”

In October, Trump renewed his vow to free Ulbricht after 12 years in prison. He also reiterated the promise on other occasions, leading to many speculating that he might keep his word.

Kalshi listed some reasons that make such a pardon likely, and others that make it unlikely in a blog post dedicated to the Trump pardons bets. The post suggests that the president may do it simply because he promised it and because the case “highlights sentencing disparities for non-violent offenses.”

As reason against, Kalshi points out that “pardoning Ulbricht could be seen as being soft on crime” and his promise to commute sentences does not guarantee a pardon. So far Ulbricht’s is the pardon seen as the most likely in the market.

Other pardons that Kalshi users are betting on include Rudy Giuliani (60% likelihood), Roger Ver (52%), Steve Bannon (46%), Eric Adams (31%), Rod Blagojevich (27%, Julian Assange (24%), Edward Snowden (22%), Young Thug (12%) and Kentrell De Sean Gaulden (7%). The list also includes Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of now-defunct crypto exchange FTX with a measly 3% of capital in favor.

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