5 Reasons the Crypto Bull Market Could Restart Anytime Soon
The crypto market has taken a heavy hit over the past month. Total market cap fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of about 30%. The rebound to $3.12 trillion has not changed the debate — traders remain split.
One group says a deeper bear market is forming. The other says the correction already looks like late-stage weakness. This piece focuses on the second group. Several telltale readings now hint that the crypto bull market could start sooner than expected.
Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: peak weakness, peak capitulation, or a rise in fresh buying power. Together, they might be forming one of the strongest early bull cycle setups seen.
Short-Term Selling Pressure Looks Close to ExhaustionShort-term holders have been selling at one of the fastest paces in months, and this is usually what happens near a bottom.
Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.
More signs for a big bounce ahead. pic.twitter.com/uVDgwoPNkP
Bitcoin Munger flagged the spike in coins sent to exchanges at a loss, while JA Maartunn highlighted a similar surge on CryptoQuant, with more than 60,000 Bitcoin moved at a loss within hours. This kind of panic selling often marks the “clean-out” phase before a trend shift from bear market vibes.
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STH Capitulation: X
The on-chain data confirms it. The short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15, matching the same level from April 7. SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, shows whether coins spent on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops under 1 and then stabilizes, it often signals that weak holders have already capitulated.
Crypto Bull Market Signal Via STH SOPR: CryptoQuant
Short-term holders matter because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic-sell earlier, hit stop losses quicker, and usually dump into weakness. This is why short-term selling pressure almost always peaks near market bottoms.
After the April reset, Bitcoin rallied from $76,270 to $123,345 within months, a near 62% move. With SOPR now back at 0.97, the latest drop hints that the selling pressure may be close to burnout.
This sets up the next question: Is fresh buying power building up elsewhere? That’s where the next indicator comes in.
Stablecoin Power Is Building AgainIf short-term sellers are close to exhaustion, the next question is simple: Is there enough fresh buying power to lift prices?
Right now, the stablecoin data says yes.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 11.59, its lowest reading in over a year. SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total stablecoin supply. When SSR falls, it means stablecoins hold more buying power relative to Bitcoin. Traders sometimes refer to this as “dry powder.”
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Hits Yearly Lows: CryptoQuant
This level is even lower than the 12.89 reading seen on April 8, the same period when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,276 before rallying for months. Lower SSR means stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.
A second confirmation comes from the RSI of SSR, highlighted by analyst Maartunn. It sits near 26, a level that has repeatedly aligned with Bitcoin bottoms during the past bear markets. A low RSI here means stablecoin buying power is oversold relative to Bitcoin’s size — a rare setup that often appears before trend shifts.
SSR RSI Bottoming Out: X
Taken together, the rising stablecoin reserves and the deeply compressed SSR show the market has the liquidity needed for a crypto bull market rebound.
Altcoin Profit Reset Might Be Quietly Strengthening the Crypto Bull Market CaseShort-term capitulation and low SSR already show that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is even deeper.
Glassnode’s latest data shows that only about 5% of altcoin supply is still in profit, which is a level normally seen during late-stage capitulation. When almost every holder is underwater, the market usually has very little left to sell.
Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.