4 US Economic Events That Could Move Bitcoin In the Final Week of February

Bitcoin enters the final week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US economic events) once again dictating short-term direction.

After last week’s mixed signals, including moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets remain undecided on the pace of rate cuts ahead of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting.

4 US Economic Events That Traders Are Watching Closely

With rate expectations finely balanced, this week’s economic calendar could inject fresh volatility into crypto markets.

This Week’s Major US Economic Reports & Fed Speakers. Source: MarketWatch Fed Officials Take the Stage

A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday through Wednesday, featuring Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.

With markets currently pricing in two to three cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone could quickly shift rate expectations.

Interest Rate Change Probabilities in 2026. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Historically, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance against inflation and data dependence.

If they reiterate concerns about “last-mile” disinflation or signal patience on cuts, Treasury yields could rise alongside the US dollar. Such an outcome could pressure Bitcoin and potentially push it lower.

Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing growth or labor softening could weaken the dollar and spark a relief rally in risk assets.

Clustered appearances also increase the risk of intraday swings, particularly if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin traders, tone, not policy action, may be the key volatility trigger this week.